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 Prediction Markets Project 
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Extreme User
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Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2012 9:19 pm
Posts: 130
Post Prediction Markets Project
see http://www.predictit.org (for example. I'm sure there are others)

I'm interested in experimenting with using RV as a performance edge in trading these markets. Essentially I like the proposition because of the contrast with financial markets where outcomes are less binary. Obviously several of the markets are best avoided due to outcomes determined by calendar dates.

My proposal would be to first make a candidate-pool of target markets which lend themselves to efficient cues and have asymmetry in current odds, design proper cues, then assign associative targets to the potential outcomes, respectively. Run them blind (as a team), then see if we are consistent enough to make bets.

Thoughts?


Tue Sep 24, 2019 9:19 pm
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Ultimate User
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Joined: Sat Dec 25, 2004 4:07 pm
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Location: Occupied Virginia
Post Re: Prediction Markets Project
I would recommend "Remote Viewing Financial Markets" from the LearnRV.com products and more traditional financial trading markets.

The problem with predictit.org is that there are no technical analysis tools for the market concept on their website. The technical analysis tools for markets help "binaryize" the prediction from day to day and the RVFM process allows for more profitable use of these tools.

I won't say what I think about the "efficiency" of this sort of website.

There's also very little promise of return on your time investment:

Quote:
Victoria University of Wellington secured a no-action letter from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission,[11] eliminating the risk of prosecution for illegal online gambling.[12] In order to secure the no-action letter, each question is limited to 5,000 traders, and there is an $850 cap on individual investments per question.[2] These restrictions are modeled after the Iowa Electronic Markets, which previously secured a no-action letter from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission;[12] however, there are differences in the restrictions between the two markets.[11]


See viewtopic.php?f=30&t=3366&hilit=adventure

(Yeah, that was 10 years ago... I was doing this, then got sucked into the most onerous, aggrevating, stressful project of my life - and most rewarding - and have not been able to find the horse to get back on him.)

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The problem with the future is that there are so many to choose from. http://somanyfutures.blogspot.com/
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Sat Nov 16, 2019 4:46 pm
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Extreme User
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Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2012 9:19 pm
Posts: 130
Post Re: Prediction Markets Project
That's very helpful, thank you!

Scratch this project then.

I do have the Financial Markets DVD. And I've been trading full time for many years now. So far as 'technical analysis' goes -- I believe there is no better 'indicator' than one's subjective awareness of conviction for a belief which is simply a humble product of the preparation process. The analysis-model along with sufficient self-control can get one into the 90% bracket (break-even over time). If you want to get to that 95% (consistently profitable) then it's just a matter of making the whole thing incredibly professional and personal. Absolutely overwhelming focus on process over outcomes.

My performance from 4 years of live, discretionary, intra-day, risk-limited, futures trading:
https://www.screencast.com/t/qe1ekEe8


Mon Nov 18, 2019 7:30 pm
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