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RE: words the matrix understands...
http://rvcommunity.net/viewtopic.php?f=36&t=3285
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Author:  justinkcrv [ Thu Jan 29, 2009 12:46 am ]
Post subject:  RE: words the matrix understands...

Any pros out there know if the matrix understands the word 'wager'? I'm working on a cue for an upcoming MMA fight and I have been trying to word it better than I have in the past. 'Wager' seems like the best word to use but I DON'T KNOW. /Wager to maximize near term profit/ seems like a good addition to my cue, maybe. Please advise.
Thanks,Justin

Author:  Stark [ Thu Jan 29, 2009 3:43 am ]
Post subject:  Re: RE: words the matrix understands...

Are you trying to RV the amount of money you should bet or the fight itself? Both of those things might be indicated by the word 'wager' but i can't think of how it would help in a cue. I assume (at the usual risk of course) that you are trying to figure out something special, other than just the winner of a specific fight, but without knowing exactly what you want to know it might be hard for someone to tell you whether that particular word is going to be ideal. If you have already indicated the specific fight you probably don't have to say 'near term' it should be understood that you are looking to make money from that particular fight. But of course, i'm not a pro.

P.S. this post is in the wrong forum.

P.P.S i hate your avatar.

Author:  kfa [ Thu Jan 29, 2009 7:03 am ]
Post subject:  Re: RE: words the matrix understands...

Stark wrote:
P.P.S i hate your avatar.

I like it :mrgreen: Had a similar one in previous forum lives.

The question is interesting in a fundamental way, yet I can't figure out how it would make sense to ask RV for help with the amount to bet in such a case. You bet how much you are comfortable with risking. You may not want to mortgage the house even if you rv'd the outcome. There may be slightly different odds with different bookies, but it doesn't take RV to find the best. If you do arbitrage betting, there is a clear formula and you wouldn't even care for the result of the fight. What exactly is it that you seek to know?

Author:  justinkcrv [ Thu Jan 29, 2009 11:20 am ]
Post subject:  Re: RE: words the matrix understands...

Ah, you misunderstood. I don't want to RV to find out how much to wager, "/Wager to maximize near term profit/" is just part of a cue. So, actual cue structure is: (name of fight)/(name of fighters 'joe vs pete')/wager to maximize near term profit/ (etc. HARV cue).

Any opinion?
Thanks,
Justin

Author:  kfa [ Thu Jan 29, 2009 11:28 am ]
Post subject:  Re: RE: words the matrix understands...

Ok thanks... I don't know because I don't own the RVFM disk yet. Shall retract from interfering and listen.

Author:  Stark [ Thu Jan 29, 2009 5:41 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: RE: words the matrix understands...

Ok, but what i'm asking is, why is it part of your cue. It seems like you are taking quite a round about way to find out the winner. I guess i'll just pose the question more bluntly, do you want to know the winner? And if that is the case just put that in your cue. And if this isn't what you're looking for i suggest you state it fast before this post gets locked.

Author:  PROfit [ Fri Jan 30, 2009 8:17 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: RE: words the matrix understands...

Quote:
i suggest you state it fast before this post gets locked.


I don't think that's going to happen, - seems that this part of forum is forgotten by pros at least :)

Though, administration should be reading these topics sometimes :)

Author:  Kane [ Sun Mar 22, 2009 5:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: RE: words the matrix understands...

Good for you that I know how to answer this question, been spending the better part of my youth (11 years) trying to turn a profit in sports betting.

Simply take 20 RV sessions and take success rate divide by total sessions (20 in this case).

e.g. 11 (Wins) / 20 (sessions) = 0.55 or 55% success rate.

Invert the success rate and multiply in a buffer, such +20% gives you good value odds which give higher chance of long term profits.

1/0.55 = $1.82
$1.82 * 1.20 = $2.18

Thus to remain profitable, just look for good value games which offer odds above $2.18.

As to how much to wager, take the amount you can afford to lose (e.g. 1,000) and divide them based on the staking plans explained here. Kelly criterion is one I'm planning to use once I done 20 sessions and get a baseline accuracy from it. Kelly has High risk and high returns without overbetting.

Over-betting means wager amount is greater than risk/return ratio. e.g. Wager 100% of money on 30% probability event. (1/0.3 = $4.33 @European Odds)

Peace.

Author:  PROfit [ Sun Mar 29, 2009 11:37 am ]
Post subject:  Re: RE: words the matrix understands...

Kane, my respect.

Great solution, real solution.

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